These growth trends are challenged by a global economy dealing with major uncertainty.

Financial experts and major institutions largely agree on a few key points about the world economy: At the beginning of 2026, forecasts for global economic growth ranged from 2.5% to 3.3%, but energy-price concerns have since pushed several outlooks downward.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its projection for the world economy on July 8, 2026, citing the ongoing energy shocks caused by the Iran conflict. The IMF now expects the global economy to expand by 3% in 2026, down from 3.5% in 2025. The fund expects worldwide growth to rebound to 3.4% in 2027.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) published two forecasts in June 2026 based on the disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East:

● If energy production normalizes from third quarter 2026, global growth would slow to 2.8% in 2026 before picking up to 3.1% in 2027.

● If energy disruptions continue into late 2027, global growth would slow to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, hitting Asia, Europe, and developing economies hardest.

The World Bank is forecasting 2.5% growth in 2026, down from 2.9% in 2025—the lowest rate since the pandemic—with two-thirds of global economies downgraded versus January forecasts.

Goldman Sachs’ original 2026 view (published December 2025 before the Iran conflict) was notably upbeat, with growth forecasts of 2.8% versus a 2.5% consensus. Growth in the US was forecast to accelerate to 2.6% and China at 4.8%, driven by tax cuts, easier financial conditions, and reduced tariff costs. Once the war hit, the financial giant’s research changed its outlook, citing a 0.3-percentage-point reduction in global growth and a 0.5–0.6-percentage-point increase in headline inflation from the oil-price shock alone. Goldman Sachs also cited concerns about supply chain disruptions.

The result is a “sturdy but uneven” recovery. The Middle East conflict is the dominant near-term risk, reversing what had been an improving inflation picture. In a May 19, 2026, report, the United Nations projected that inflation in developed economies would rise from 2.6% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, edging further above central bank targets in most cases.

For fitness operators, the uneven outlook raises pressure on energy and labor costs in exposed markets while reinforcing the appeal of lower-priced memberships and other flexible offerings.

Participation Reaches Record Levels

Consumer research released across the second half of 2025 and into early 2026 points to a fitness industry that is no longer selling gym access alone. Across surveys, membership data, and operator research, a consistent picture emerges of consumers who are treating fitness as essential spending, redefining their goals away from weight loss and toward strength and overall wellness, including mental health, longevity, recovery, and choosing facilities based on community and belonging as much as equipment access.

US fitness facility membership reached 81 million people in 2025, a new all-time high and the fourth consecutive year of post-pandemic growth, according to HFA’s 2026 US Health & Fitness Consumer Report. An estimated 26.1% of Americans aged 6 and older hold a fitness facility membership, while total consumers, including non-members who pay per visit, topped 100 million for the first time. Total visits to fitness facilities reached nearly 7 billion in 2025, surpassing the pre-pandemic record set in 2019.

Consumer commitment to fitness is also showing up in household budgets. A separate HFA-commissioned survey conducted by Kantar found that:

● More than 82 million Americans said they planned to spend a combined $60 billion in 2026 to support health and fitness goals, at an average of $61 per person per month.

● Health and exercise ranked as the most popular resolution theme for 2026, cited by 54% of goal-setters, ahead of finances, nutrition, and relationships.

● When asked which household expenses they would cut first if needed, only 23% of Americans named fitness, well behind dining out (44%), travel (36%), and entertainment (29%), underscoring that consumers increasingly view fitness as a relatively protected spend category.

That resilience is echoed in facility-level traffic data. HFA's 2025 Fitness Industry Traffic Tracker, drawing on anonymized foot-traffic across nearly 11,000 US facilities, found average visits per location climbed 4.2% year-over-year, with HVLP gyms recording their most-attended third quarter on record. Separately, HFA’s 2026 US Health & Fitness Consumer Report found that member churn declined to 7.1% in 2025, the lowest rate in a decade, while average membership tenure reached 5.0 years, also a decade high.

European data from EuropeActive reinforces the US reports' narrative—participation is growing, younger generations are driving specialty-format growth, and GLP-1 adoption remains a real but still-niche intersection with fitness. Europe reached 75.5 million members, €39.1 billion in revenue, and 67,515 clubs in 2025. Membership grew about 5.8% and revenue about 9.1%.

The European industry is simultaneously getting bigger, more diverse, and more habit-forming, according to the EuropeActive report. Growth is increasingly coming from non-members, older adults, budget-tier operators, and strength/mind-body/racquet-sport formats, while traditional high-frequency and HIIT formats and luxury-segment usage continue to soften relative to pre-pandemic numbers.