Passion and Profits

HFB’s Money Issue examines winning trends and explores the risk of not anticipating risk.

There’s a reason why economics has been called the dismal science. Legendary screenwriter William Goldman famously said that when it comes to prognosticating movie hits in Hollywood, “Nobody knows anything.” The same can be said of the economy. Theories are interesting, sometimes helpful, but the market is the market. It doesn’t care about your theories, and it certainly doesn’t care about your feelings.

“The future is never clear,” legendary investor Warren Buffet once said. “You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus. Uncertainty actually is the friend of the buyer of long-term values.”

The Oracle of Omaha was talking about stock trading, but there’s an overriding principle here that applies to operational strategy. Don’t deceive yourself by thinking that the good times will continue or that you can do the same thing every year and expect the same results.

The health and fitness industry is well aware of the risk of not anticipating risk. Like all business sectors, the global fitness industry experienced the ultimate stress test during the pandemic, and those who came out of it and prospered were the ones who held a realistic outlook, not a cheery one, before disaster struck.

Buffet also said, “You never know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out.”

You need to take a good look at your possible exposure to unpredictable market upheaval and do your own stress test before the economy applies an unexpected one.

“It may not be in the business plan, but passion drives many of the entrepreneurs who enter the fitness space. It will always be this way, no matter the risk, no matter the economy.”

Startups, Billion-Dollar Brands, and the Journey Ahead

This brings us to The HFA Show 2026. The annual conference and trade show is a reliable barometer of overall industry financial health. Even with a conflict overseas and other obstacles to travel, more than 10,000 registered for the event. Of the 380 companies exhibiting on the trade show floor, 60 were newcomers. Only a thriving industry could produce these numbers.

The panels and sessions provided the reasons for the strength of the industry. The Rick Caro Financial Panel (newly renamed for its late founder) featured four financial experts who evaluated the red-hot HVLP category, the newest iteration of which has been dubbed HVLP 3.0. HFB dives into the subject, putting brands like EoS under a microscope to find out how it has earned a valuation of $1.5 billion, a total also achieved by another HVLP 3.0 standout, Crunch Fitness.

Another interesting topic at the Financial Panel was the debate over single-modality versus full-stack offerings. The financial professionals saw some risk in the boutique single-modality concept, but one brand that bucks that trend is Burn Boot Camp. In this issue we look at how they continue to grow market share by building community—and joy—into their model.

Overall, the consensus of investors in the fitness and wellness sector is bullish: Wall Street and private equity like the long tail of the industry and see younger generations budgeting to prioritize their health, though their habits differ from older demographics. (Note: Risk is built-in to anticipating Gen Z and Gen Alpha behavior.)

Every year The HFA Show acts as an idea incubator, but especially this year. Entrepreneurs aren’t picking stocks like Buffett—they are wired to have a cheery outlook as they do the difficult work of entering a new market against considerable and established competition.

Private equity and banks may finance many businesses in the sector, but passion is the currency that makes the industry special. It may not be in the business plan, but passion drives many of the entrepreneurs who enter the fitness space. It will always be this way, no matter the risk, no matter the economy.

We hope that never changes.

Contributors

Anne Marie Chaker

Anne Marie Chaker is a veteran journalist, professional bodybuilder, and author of LIFT: How Women Can Reclaim Their Physical Power and Transform Their Lives (Penguin Random House). She is also the co-host of LIFT, a new, live SiriusXM show exploring women, strength, and power, co-hosted with Pattie Sellers, founder of Fortune Most Powerful Women. Click to learn more about LIFT.

During her two-decade career at The Wall Street Journal, Chaker held reporting roles across the paper, from regional editions to the Spot News Desk during the September 11 attacks. She has covered politics, major news events, consumer trends, education, the workplace, and the defining sociological shifts of our time. Chaker lives in the Washington, DC area. She can be contacted at amchaker@gmail.com.

Jon Feld

Jon Feld has been writing for four decades. He has a diverse and varied background: editor for Club Industry magazine, publications director at Boston University, director of Content Development at Inc. Magazine, media business owner, and more. One thread has been a near constant for most of his career: He’s been writing for HFA since 1987. He can be contacted at jfeld@oncoremedia.net.

Julie King

Julie King is a freelance writer with more than 30 years of experience in the fitness industry. She’s worked as a content creator, personal trainer, group fitness instructor, fitness director, fitness/wellness coordinator, and health club manager. Since 2002, King has been a contributing writer to Health & Fitness Business. Her work has also appeared in the Journal on Active Aging, Club Solutions, Recreation Management, Campus Recreation, National Fitness Trade Journal, and Fitness Management. Holding a B.S. in journalism and an M.S. in kinesiology, King was a contributing author to The Fitness Handbook, published by Stairmaster Sports/Medical Products. She can be contacted at julie.king1@comcast.net.

Health & Fitness Business is a publication of

Health & Fitness Business (HFB) is the leading health and fitness industry publication. Published monthly by the Health & Fitness Association (HFA) and distributed free to the industry, HFB offers analysis of the opportunities, challenges, issues, and news that impact the industry.

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